Texas has the largest CRE maturity stack of any state in 2026. Multifamily and industrial dominate. Insurance, particularly along the Gulf Coast, is the binding constraint on multifamily refi outcomes more than rates.
What is in the Texas 2026 maturity stack?
Texas accounts for roughly 12% to 14% of US CRE debt outstanding by most public estimates, anchored by Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, and San Antonio. The 2026 maturity stack mirrors this: multifamily and industrial first, retail and office second.
The state-level story is dominated by insurance. Hurricane and hail premium increases since 2017 have pushed multifamily insurance to multiples of historical levels in coastal and inland Texas alike. Insurance is now a deal-killer for marginal multifamily refis where it was previously a line item.
Texas is also home to a large concentration of debt-fund and bank bridge loans on 2020 to 2022 value-add multifamily that did not deliver underwritten rent growth. Most of these are taking mezz, selling, or working out.
Which Texas assets are refinancing cleanly?
Industrial across the I-35, I-30, and Port of Houston corridors refis cleanly with bank and life co debt at competitive terms: 5- and 10-year fixed at 55% to 65% LTV.
Stabilized agency multifamily in submarkets where insurance has been managed (storm shutters, captive participation, comprehensive coverage) refis cleanly through Fannie and Freddie at 65% to 72% LTV with partial paydowns.
Where are Texas workouts clustering?
Multifamily in coastal counties and bayou-adjacent tracts where insurance premiums have risen sharply. Workout volume here is among the highest in the state.
Older office across non-trophy Houston Energy Corridor, Westchase, and Dallas LBJ Freeway product. Bank loans extending; CMBS moving to special servicing.
What is the Texas 12-month outlook?
12-month outlook: insurance market is the dominant variable. Sponsors with risk-mitigation infrastructure refi cleanly; sponsors without face repeat premium shocks. Industrial demand remains strong; expect competitive bank and life co pricing through 2026. Office workout activity continues at slow PACE.
Frequently asked questions
Is Texas a non-recourse state?
Texas has standard mortgage law; loan recourse is set by the loan documents, not by state statute. Most institutional perm debt in Texas is non-recourse subject to standard bad-boy carve-outs; bank bridge debt is more often partial or full recourse.
How much does multifamily insurance run in Texas right now?
It varies enormously by county, asset, and prior loss history. Coastal Texas multifamily can run $700 to $1,500 per unit annually for comprehensive coverage; inland Texas runs lower but has also risen materially since 2020. Get a current quote from your insurance broker.
Sources
- Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Maturities Outlook · Mortgage Bankers Association · 2026-02
- Financial Stability Report · Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 2025-11
- Current Employment Statistics: State & Metro Employment · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · monthly
- Regional GDP and Personal Income · U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · 2025-Q4